중국,
신용버블 위험수위
U.S. Stocks Decline on Fed Comments, China Cash Crunch
중국의 '자금시장 경색 우려'가 기업공개에도 바로 영향을 미치고 있으며, 금융시장 전체로 확산하는 양상입니다. 외국인 투자자들의 자본 이탈이 가속화 되지 않을까 우려됩니다.
중국마저 수렁에 빠지나···경기부진에 中증시 휘청
지난 5월 말부터 한 달간 약 52억 달러(약 5조8760억원)의 자금이 중국 본토 및 홍콩 주식·펀드시장에서 빠져나가 중국 성장둔화에 대한 우려가 증폭됐다.
글로벌 시장조사기관인 이머징포트폴리오펀드리서치(EPFR) 통계에 따르면 지난 5월22일부터 이달 12일까지 한 달 남짓한 시간동안 중국 본토(상하이·선전거래소, 레드칩(홍콩증시에 상장된 중국기업 주식), H주) 및 홍콩주식·펀드시장에서 각각 36억9100만달러, 14억9700만 달러가 빠져나갔다고 메이르징지신원(每日經濟新聞)이 19일 보도했다.
특히 5월30일에서 이달 5일사이에만 14억7600만 달러가 중국 시장에서 철수했다. 이는 2011년 2월 이후 최대규모의 자금 순유출로 하반기에도 중국 경제가 활기를 찾지 못하는 것이 아니냐는 불안감이 커지고 있다.
중국 시장에서의 빠른 자금유출은 지난 5월 거시경기지표 대부분이 시장기대에 못 미친 때문으로 보인다.
리우훙꺼(劉紅哿) 중국 건설은행 수석이코노미스트는 " 중국 자본시장이 '내우외환' 상태라며 특히 상하이 은행간 금리(시보, Shibor)가 평균 6% 이상에 달하는 등 은행간 유동성부족이 심각하다"고 지적했다.
또한 그는 "중국 중앙은행이 통화정책에 소극적인 태도를 보이는 것도 시장을 위축시키고 있다"고 지적했다.
중국 경기 회복세가 미약함에 따라 글로벌 금융기관들도 중국 경제성장률 전망치를 낮추는 추세다.
글로벌 투자은행 모건 스탠리는 중국의 올해 경제성장률을 당초 예상치인 8.2%보다 훨씬 낮은 7.6%로 하향조정했다. UBS 은행역시 7.5%로 전망치를 낮췄다. 바클레이스 은행은 23년래 최저치인 7.4%로 전망했다.
심지어 하반기 중국 경제성장률이 7% 이하로 떨어질 가능성이 30%라는 전망이 나오는 등 중국경제위기론이 시장에 확산되고 있다.
앞서 프랑스 소시에떼 제너랄 은행은 " 중국은 더이상 세계 경제를 이끄는 주동력이 아니다"라며 미국 등 선진국 경제가 회복되는 반면에 중국 성장둔화는 심화돼 중국의 글로벌 시장에서의 입지가 달라졌다고 지적하기도 했다.
Fitch Notices Credit Bubble in China
Now it's official – even the credit rating agencies are noticing the huge credit bubble in China, which has in recent years been mainly driven by the 'shadow banking' market. Keep in mind though, the shadow banking market is still financed by the banks – it is a method by which they are escaping official credit restrictions.
Albert Edwards and his colleagues at CLSA have recently darkly muttered about an 'approaching Minsky moment' for China, as the recent surge in credit seems not to have fueled much growth – on the contrary, growth seems to be weakening seemingly in spite of vast credit growth.
Of course it is not really 'in spite', but 'because of' – the only difference to earlier phases is that this time, it is noticed right away. Instead of producing another boom-bust phase, the credit expansion now apparently produces bust exclusively – which is a strong sign that the pool of real funding in China is in trouble.
Lately there have also been stresses in the interbank market, which haven't really gone away just yet (at least we now know that there has indeed been a bank that was unable to repay its obligations, see further below).
The Telegraph writes regarding Fitch's assessment:
“China's shadow banking system is out of control and under mounting stress as borrowers struggle to roll over short-term debts, Fitch Ratings has warned.
The agency said the scale of credit was so extreme that the country would find it very hard to grow its way out of the excesses as in past episodes, implying tougher times ahead.
"The credit-driven growth model is clearly falling apart. This could feed into a massive over-capacity problem, and potentially into a Japanese-style deflation," said Charlene Chu, the agency's senior director in Beijing."There is no transparency in the shadow banking system, and systemic risk is rising. We have no idea who the borrowers are, who the lenders are, and what the quality of assets is, and this undermines signaling," she told The Daily Telegraph.
While the non-performing loan rate of the banks may look benign at just 1pc, this has become irrelevant as trusts, wealth-management funds, offshore vehicles and other forms of irregular lending make up over half of all new credit. "It means nothing if you can off-load any bad asset you want. A lot of the banking exposure to property is not booked as property," she said.
Concerns are rising after a string of upsets in Quingdao, Ordos, Jilin and elsewhere, in so-called trust products, a $1.4 trillion (£0.9 trillion) segment of the shadow banking system.
Bank Everbright defaulted on an interbank loan 10 days ago amid wild spikes in short-term "Shibor" borrowing rates, a sign that liquidity has suddenly dried up. "Typically stress starts in the periphery and moves to the core, and that is what we are already seeing with defaults in trust products," she said.
Fitch warned that wealth products worth $2 trillion of lending are in reality a "hidden second balance sheet" for banks, allowing them to circumvent loan curbs and dodge efforts by regulators to halt the excesses.
This niche is the epicentre of risk. Half the loans must be rolled over every three months, and another 25pc in less than six months. This has echoes of Northern Rock, Lehman Brothers and others that came to grief in the West on short-term liabilities when the wholesale capital markets froze.
Mrs Chu said the banks had been forced to park over $3 trillion in reserves at the central bank, giving them a "massive savings account that can be drawn down" in a crisis, but this may not be enough to avert trouble given the sheer scale of the lending boom. Overall credit has jumped from $9 trillion to $23 trillion since the Lehman crisis. "They have replicated the entire US commercial banking system in five years," she said.
The ratio of credit to GDP has jumped by 75 percentage points to 200pc of GDP, compared to roughly 40 points in the US over five years leading up to the subprime bubble, or in Japan before the Nikkei bubble burst in 1990. "This is beyond anything we have ever seen before in a large economy. We don't know how this will play out. The next six months will be crucial," she said.”
(Emphasis added)
Frankly, we don't see in what way the 'next six months' can make any difference to the situation. All of this sounds rather like 'we are now at the point where it's way too late to do anything about it'.
China's leaders surely must be worried greatly – a flight forward makes no sense, as that would only worsen the situation and set up an even bigger bust down the road. On the other hand, considering the data related by th Telegraph above, if a bust were to begin now, it would not exactly be great fun either.
What's most baffling is why Fitch only notices this now, instead oft, say, two or three years ago.
Implications for Ancillary Bubble Countries
A lot hinges on what transpires in China. We should point out that China credit bubble watchers have been waiting for a long time for something untoward to happen, and the Chinese leadership has so far always managed to pull yet another rabbit out of its collective hat when things began to look serious. So maybe they will manage to do so again, but we have our doubts, especially as credit growth has evidently become ineffective in goosing the economy. One thing they might try is to eventually join Japan's little currency war and let the yuan come down. That would however not make China any richer, and obviously the policy hitherto was to let the currency slowly appreciate.
Quite a few countries that have experienced their own credit-driven bubbles in the wake of China's boom, such as Australia, Canada or Brazil (see earlier post) are in danger of getting into severe trouble as well if China's economy falters. In fact, if China gets into serious trouble over its shadow-banking boom, it's a good bet the effects will be noticed world-wide.
The stock market in Shanghai has meanwhile drifted lower again after the vigorous year-end rally in 2012 and is back in no-man's land:
Charts by: Bigcharts, Bloomberg
Stocks Tumble With Bonds as Gold Slides in Global Rout
'' The market is choosing to ignore the good news embedded in the Fed ... Stocks ... Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said theFed ... ... only 23 stocks ...
'' The market is overreacting to the Fed comments ... Russia' s Micex Index (INDEXCF) sank for a second day as commodities slumped after the U.S.... VTB Group declined ... Russia's stocks ... 10, after Fed ...
Stocks ... The U.S.... sure the Fed ... '' Still, we've seen a lot of liquidation in the Treasury market after Bernanke's comments ... A yield of'' 2.40 percenton ...
Mark Porterfield, a spokesman for Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC, declined ... The yield on ... Foreign investors dumped an unprecedented $5.6 billion of Brazilian stocks ... from London on ... government policies on...
as the U.S.... Emerging-market assets plummeted after Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the Fed ... The forint extended its three-day decline ... The benchmark BUX stock ... The central bank did not immediately respond to e-mailed questions from Bloomberg News asking for further comment ...
Stocks ... About $2 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities since Bernanke told U.S.... The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined ... The yield on ... Still, Bernanke tried to temper his message by saying that the Fed ...
The Canadian dollar fell as its U.S.... '' The loonie is weakening mainly because of Fed ... The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on ... 1.0273...
the company's U.S.... to press on ... A gauge of consumer prices excluding food and energy that is watched by the Fed... Stocks ... '' The economy is on ...
of a U.S.... '' As there was market turmoil on concern about tapering in theU.S.... '' Investors are now awaiting his comments ... 4.3 percent on ... Tokyo Electric Power Co. led declines ...
Spokesmen for New York-based banks JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley declined ... quarter, based on ... 20 percent decline ... The outlook has helped boost bank stocks ... Last year, deal volume and equity and credit markets fellon ...
Conclusion:
『This time things could finally really get out of hand. This needs to be watched closely (yet another thing that needs to be watched). All over the world, the great central planning experiment based on pure fiat money that has been in train since the 1970s is running into trouble. China has become another 'gray swan' and like Japan, it's a big one.』
『중국 실물경제가 요즘 심상찮다. 핵심 성장엔진인 제조업이 불황 국면에 들어섰다는 징후가 여기저기서 포착된다. 이런 때 볼커 쇼크 요법이 부작용을 최소화하고 성공할지는 미지수다. 베이징대 경영대학원인 광화관리학원(光華管理學院) 마이클 페티스 교수(금융)는 이달 18일 기자와의 통화에서 “경제정책 담당자가 거품을 관리해 부작용을 최소화하기란 사실상 불가능하다”며 “경기침체나 주택시장 위기 등 부작용이 예상된다”고 말했다.』
『벤 버냉키 미 연준의장의 '출구전략' (양적완화 축소 및 종결: QE3) 언급이 전 세계 금융시장에 영향을 끼친 것은 사실이지만, 그동안 묻혀 있던 '중국의 경제 성장 둔화 우려'와 'Shadow Banking System'으로 인한 '중국의 금융 시장 경색' 등이 앞으로 우리나라에 다양한 형태로 영향을 미칠 것에 대해 예의주시 해야 할 것으로 판단합니다.
또한, 일본 '아베 노믹스'의 부정적인 영향까지 고려한다면 정부, 금융기관 그리고 개인 등은 신중한 주의가 요구됩니다.』
'Shadow Banking System' : 은행권 이외 대출을 일컫는 용어 (중국 지방정부 혹은 기업이 부실한 재정 등의 원인으로, 금융기관을 통한 정상적인 자금 조달이 어려워 고금리의 편법 자금 조달로 부채의 악순환이 누적되어온 금융구조)
중국판 '그림자 금융 (Shadow Banking)' 은행이 아닌 금융회사들로 이뤄진 금융세계. 서방 그림자 금융은 헤지펀드·사모펀드·투자은행·페이퍼컴퍼니 등으로 구성됐다. 하지만 중국 그림자 금융은 투자신탁회사와 사채업자 등이 핵심이다. 아직 금융시장이 성숙하지 않은 탓이다. 하지만 은행과 견줘 느슨한 감시·감독을 이용해 신용거품을 일으키고 있다는 것이 공통점이다.
By Joseph S. Park
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